Product vision
What the terminal will feel like.
Illustrative mockups of the Rebelative Terminal — built on synthetic data aligned to our methodology. Fictional issuer names (RetailCo, TechFin, CloudCo …).
Research Agent
Your alt-credit research analyst, on tap.
Natural-language instructions become planned, multi-step research and repeatable reports — grounded in the Rebelative signal library, issuer universe, and historical OAS panel.
user@creditfundco:~$
rebel> Rebel, schedule Software Sector QOQ Est Revenue Tracking report
and correlations to the daily OAS changes.
[rebel] understood. drafting plan…
- 1. parse scope sector=Software · universe=12 issuers · period=Q1 FY26, rolling 8q
- 2. identify issuers CloudCo, TechFin, DataWareCo, SecOpsCo, CrmCo, … (resolve to internal IDs)
- 3. assemble signals card spend, app DAU, job postings, web traffic, cloud consumption proxy
- 4. nowcast QOQ revenue Rebelative nowcast → vs street consensus (IBES) · track MAPE + IC
- 5. join OAS panel 5Y IG/HY OAS daily, 2018–2026 · lag 0/1/3/5d · rolling 60d correlation
- 6. compute correlations Spearman(QOQ est rev, ΔOAS) per issuer, per lag, + sector aggregate
- 7. schedule + delivery every Mon 07:00 ET; push to Excel + Snowflake share; PDF summary to Slack
[rebel] sample preview — Software sector, last 8q (Spearman, 3d lag):
✓ scheduled software_sector_qoq_rev_oas.report
recurrence: weekly Mon 07:00 ET · output: XLSX + Snowflake + PDF · first run: 27 Apr · subscribers: Max, Jane, …
[rebel] I'll also watch for regime shifts — if ρ(rev, ΔOAS) weakens > 0.15 in any 60d window, I'll flag you.
sources used: card-spend panel, job-postings, app DAU, DB-tier capex proxy, TRACE ΔOAS.
rebel> _(type to continue the thread, or /schedule /backtest /watchlist /export)
Scheduled jobs — this analyst, this week
- new
SoftSect QOQ Rev + OAS ρ
Mon 07:00
- queued
RetailCo earnings radar
Thu 06:30 · one-off
- running
HY BB-/B+ distress scan
Daily 07:00 · daily
- drafted
Private-credit peer comps
Fri 15:00 · weekly
- running
Cross-issuer nowcast drift
Daily 16:00 · daily
- scheduled
Portfolio IC attribution
1st of mo · monthly
all jobs re-runnable on demand · versioned prompts + code
Today's deliverables (auto-generated 07:00)
- XLSX softsect_qoq_rev.xlsx 14:37
- PDF distress_watchlist_2026-04-22.pdf 07:02
- SQL rebel.software_qoq_rev_v7 14:37
- SLK #credit-research · digest 07:05
Factor Library
Factor performance, audited end to end.
Out-of-sample P&L, rank IC, and regime robustness for every signal — published per release so quants can trust the factor before they trade it.
Factor performance, audited end to end.
Out-of-sample P&L, rank IC, and regime robustness for every signal — published per release.
Long-Short Sharpe
1.38
2021–2026 OOS
Annualized Return
11.4%
net of 3bps/$
Max DD
−3.9%
Jan 2023 (rate shock)
IC (rank Spearman)
0.17
6mo fwd excess ret
Beta to CDX HY
0.07
market-neutral
Capacity est.
$1.8B
bef. 40% slip
user@creditfundco:~$
rebel> Explain factor performance on this page and export the quintile breakdown.
[rebel] understood. drafting plan…
- 1. load factor RB-05 cross-sectional RV · OOS 2021–2026
- 2. audit stats Sharpe, IC, regime table on screen
- 3. export Excel + SQL view of underlying issuer-months
rebel> _(type to continue — runs on this report)
Long-Short Factor — Cumulative P&L (OOS, 2021-01 → 2026-04)
Return by risk-score quintile — monotonic + stable
Spread = 9.4% (Q1 − Q5) · t-stat 5.8 · n = 2,340 issuer-months
Rolling 6-month IC + regime robustness
Performance by regime — diligence-ready breakdown
| Regime | Window | Ann. Ret | Sharpe | IC | Max DD | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All OOS | 2021-01 → 2026-04 | 11.4% | 1.38 | 0.17 | −3.9% | 63% |
| COVID shock | 2020-03 → 2020-09 | 18.2% | 1.92 | 0.21 | −2.6% | 71% |
| Post-COVID rally | 2020-10 → 2021-12 | 9.3% | 1.21 | 0.14 | −2.1% | 59% |
| 2022 rate shock | 2022-01 → 2022-12 | 8.1% | 1.02 | 0.12 | −3.1% | 58% |
| 2023 bank stress | 2023-03 → 2023-06 | 12.7% | 1.44 | 0.19 | −1.8% | 65% |
| 2024-25 normaliz. | 2024-01 → 2025-12 | 10.8% | 1.33 | 0.16 | −2.4% | 62% |
| 2026 YTD | 2026-01 → 2026-04 | +3.4% | 1.47 | 0.18 | −0.9% | 64% |
Signal positive and statistically significant across every regime — incl. COVID, 2022 rate shock, 2023 banking stress. Worst drawdown: −3.9% in Jan 2023 (recovered in 11 weeks). Factor is net of 3bps/$ round-trip cost and 40% turnover.
Distress Watchlist
The names that meet your criteria — ranked, hourly.
Screen the full HY + private-credit panel by score, momentum, and distress state, then see exactly what a PM does with the output.
Backtests
Reproducible evidence, not a black box.
Rolling IC, rating-action prediction, and nowcast accuracy — with a plain-language description of how the model is built.
Reproducible evidence, not a black box.
Rolling IC, rating-action prediction, and nowcast accuracy — methodology on every release.
Rank IC (Spearman)
0.17
vs 0.03 Moody's PD (benchmark)
Portfolio Sharpe
1.38
long-short, 90d rebal
Hit-rate (direction)
62.4%
rating action 6mo FW
Distress-flag lead
8.2 wks
median vs agency action
Coverage (issuers)
11,284
1,047 HY + 10.2k priv
Data freshness
< 24h
daily model refresh
user@creditfundco:~$
rebel> Summarize IC stability and export the confusion matrix for this backtest page.
[rebel] understood. drafting plan…
- 1. load backtest RMM v0.9.1 · 6mo rating-action horizon
- 2. compare Rebelative IC vs Moody's PD benchmark
- 3. export methodology pack + SQL feature lineage
rebel> _(type to continue — runs on this report)
Information Coefficient — rolling 90-day Spearman
IC stable above 0.12 for 3+ years — survives COVID + 2022 rate-shock regimes
Rating-action prediction — 6-month horizon
Hit rate 62.4%
| Down | Hold | Up | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 462 | 83 | 14 |
| Hold | 71 | 1820 | 94 |
| Up | 22 | 97 | 398 |
Predicted →
↑ Actual
Precision by call-type
Nowcast MAPE vs quarter completeness
At 50% completeness: MAPE 2.8 vs consensus 5.1 → 45% edge
Methodology — how the model is built
- Panel
- Rolling retained cohort panel (2-quarter chained), ticker × date. 11,284 issuers · 2018– onward.
- Inputs
- 8 alt-data sources — invoices, email receipts, card, SaaS renewals, VIN, foot-traffic, clickstream, property.
- Transform
- Per source: z-score within sector × size bucket, then residualize vs macro. Gradient-boosted ensemble.
- Target
- y = 6-month ahead rating action (Moody's + S&P) + realized rev-growth (10-Q / 10-K). OOT CV, 4 folds.
- Validation
- Spearman IC, Sharpe of long-short factor-mimicking portfolio, distress lead-time, precision by call-type.
- Governance
- White-paper + methodology updates quarterly. All features + transforms shipped to client data-sci teams.
Portfolio
Your book, scored and explained.
Portfolio-level risk, the issuers moving most this week, sector heatmaps, and a drill-down that attributes every score to its alt-data drivers.
Your book, scored and explained.
HY Opportunistic · 87 issuers · portfolio risk and movers this week.
Portfolio Risk Score
62.4
+1.8 QoQ
Issuers Flagged Distress
4 / 87
2 new this wk
Rating Migration Signal
−1.2
net downgrade bias
Nowcast vs Consensus
+2.1%
beating street
Model Confidence
7.8 / 10
stable
user@creditfundco:~$
rebel> Summarize top risk movers on this book and export sector heatmap.
[rebel] understood. drafting plan…
- 1. load book HY Opportunistic · 87 issuers
- 2. rank Δ score 30d · distress flags
- 3. export portfolio overlay XLSX
rebel> _(type to continue — runs on this report)
Top Risk-Score Movers — HY Opportunistic Book
| Issuer | Sector | Risk Score | Δ Score | Rating FC | Nowcast | Distress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RetailCo | Cons. Disc. | 92.4 | +5.1 | B3→Caa1 85% | Rev −4.2% | FLAG |
| FoodMfgCo | Cons. Stap. | 81.7 | +3.8 | B2→B3 72% | Rev −1.9% | WATCH |
| AutoPartsCo | Auto | 78.3 | +2.9 | B3 hold 68% | Rev −0.8% | WATCH |
| LogisticsCo | Industrials | 64.1 | +0.4 | B1 hold 81% | Rev +0.6% | — |
| HealthMedCo | Healthcare | 56.9 | −0.3 | BB+ hold 90% | Rev +1.7% | — |
| TechFin | Fintech | 49.2 | −2.6 | BB→BB+ 64% | Rev +3.4% | — |
| EnergyCo | Energy | 41.8 | −3.9 | BB→BB 70% | Rev +4.9% | — |
| CloudCo | Tech / SaaS | 34.5 | −1.2 | BBB- hold 88% | Rev +5.2% | — |
Sector Risk Heatmap — 90d score change
| 30d | 60d | 6m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cons. D. | +3.0 | +3.6 | +3.9 |
| Energy | -4.9 | -4.0 | -2.5 |
| Fintech | -2.8 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Indust. | +0.1 | +0.7 | -1.3 |
| Health. | +0.6 | +1.3 | -0.1 |
| Staples | -0.3 | +1.8 | -0.2 |
| Auto | +1.2 | +2.6 | +0.6 |
| Tech | +0.6 | +3.2 | -0.6 |
Portfolio-Level Revenue Nowcast vs Consensus (rolling)
Issuer Deep-Dive — Drill into any borrower from the table above
RetailCo — risk score
RetailCo — score led OAS by ~7 weeks
Why RetailCo is flagged — factor attribution
Contribution to risk-score elevation (z)
Earnings Nowcast
Know the print before the print.
Panel-implied revenue nowcasts vs. Street consensus, mapped to a probability-weighted spread impact and peer spillover.
Know the print before the print.
RetailCo Q2 FY26 · panel nowcast vs Street · spread impact scenarios.
Rev Estimate Q2 FY26
$8.43B
±1.9% · street $8.28B
Surprise Probability
73%
+1.7σ beat · conf 7.8/10
EPS Nowcast
$1.42
vs consensus $1.36 · +4.4%
Expected HY OAS Move
−14 bp
on +2% rev surprise · 2-day
Revenue MAPE 4q
3.1%
Rebelative · street 5.4%
user@creditfundco:~$
rebel> Model RetailCo Q2 print and export spread scenario table.
[rebel] understood. drafting plan…
- 1. load print Q2 FY26 · report 21 May
- 2. simulate rev surprise → HY OAS 2-day
- 3. export scenario grid + peer spillover
rebel> _(type to continue — runs on this report)
Q2 FY26 revenue — Rebelative nowcast vs Street consensus
Signal stack powering the nowcast:
Credit spread impact — 2-day OAS move
| scenario | prob | IG OAS | HY OAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large beat (+3% rev) | 22% | −6 bp | −22 bp |
| Modest beat (+1% rev) | 51% | −3 bp | −14 bp |
| In-line | 18% | +1 bp | +2 bp |
| Modest miss (−1% rev) | 7% | +7 bp | +28 bp |
| Large miss (−3% rev) | 2% | +18 bp | +64 bp |
Prob-weighted HY OAS move:
≈ +0.71% 2-day TR on 5Y 6.25% bond
−14.3 bp
Betas from 5y panel of issuer prints × OAS reactions, controlled for rates + index flow · IC 0.41.
Peer spillover — RetailCo's print moves not-yet-reported peers
Spillover coefficients learned via graph model over 5y of co-movement. Signs propagate BOTH ways — good news lifts peer credit, bad news leaks before peers print.
Also nowcasted — post-print drivers
| metric | estimate | MAPE | IC | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.43B | 3.1% | 0.34 | +1.7 |
| Gross margin | 37.6% | 55bp | 0.28 | −0.9 |
| Inventory days | 74d | 2.8d | 0.22 | +1.1 |
| Free cash flow | $630M | 7.2% | 0.24 | +1.1 |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 3.8x | 0.12x | 0.26 | −0.6 |
| Same-store sales | +2.1% | 42bp | 0.31 | +0.7 |
Track record — nowcast vs realized
IC of forecast residual vs
realized spread move (24m)
0.34
Issuer Deep-Dive
One issuer, every signal fused.
Revenue nowcast, rating-migration forecast, peer relative value, and the alt-data event feed — on a single issuer page.
RetailCo Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Specialty Retail · $1.8B revenue TTM
- Bond
- RetailCo 6.25% 2028 · Ba3 / B+
- Spread
- OAS 612 bps (+87 bps 30d)
- Risk Score
- 92.4 / 100 · +5.1 QoQ · DISTRESS
Data sources
- TRANSACTIONS Vendor AR aging & DPO timing 3d lag
- CARD / POS U.S. specialty retail card spend 2d lag
- EMAIL E-receipt purchase confirmations 2d lag
- IN-STORE Banner-store foot-traffic & POS velocity 1d lag
- WEB / APP Brand site traffic & loyalty app DAU 1d lag
- B2B Inbound freight & supplier lead times 5d lag
- MEDIA Category ad spend & share-of-voice 7d lag
- CREDIT Commercial tradeline & lien registry 14d lag
- SECTOR Specialty retail macro composite 1d lag
Panel-level exports available via your Snowflake share (REBELATIVE.ALT_CREDIT.*) for issuer drill-down, backtests, and custom analysis.
user@creditfundco:~$
rebel> Explain RetailCo distress flag drivers and export signal stack.
[rebel] understood. drafting plan…
- 1. load issuer RetailCo · B3 / distress flag
- 2. fuse 6 alt-data streams → risk score 92.4
- 3. export issuer dossier + event timeline
rebel> _(type to continue — runs on this report)
Revenue Nowcast — 6 alt-data streams fused into one signal
Signal stack — what's driving the score
C2FO B2B feed
Edison panel
Affinity receipts
SpendHound renewal
Mobile foot-traffic
Retail-sector macro
Clickstream
Rating Migration Forecast — next 12 months
Downgrade bias: 60% prob. ≤ B3 within 12mo
Peer Relative Value — Consumer Disc. B-band
RetailCo: cheap relative to score → short vs peer basket
Recent alt-data events
-
2026-04-18
Vendor DPO ↑ 68d (+12 QoQ)
-
2026-04-15
Email receipts −9.4% WoW
-
2026-04-11
SaaS renewal churn spike
-
2026-04-05
Store traffic: NE weak
-
2026-03-28
Top-20 card spend −4.2% YoY
-
2026-03-22
Nowcast revised to −4.2%
-
2026-03-14
Distress flag triggered (>85)